Fusion and Turnout
One common question that gets asked about fusion is whether it increases voter turnout. The answer is yes, but in a quirky way that takes a little explaining.
The three points one can credibly make about fusion’s impact are:
1. It increases meaningful voting. Because it solves the “wasted vote” problem, fusion can also be credited with increasing turnout in terms of citizens having a chance to vote for candidates with a real chance of winning. Right now, there are voters who prefer a minor party or who simply will not vote on a major party line, but will vote for a major-party candidate on a minor party line. That’s just reality. What fusion does is allow that person to cast a meaningful vote for a joint major-minor fusion candidate. So one is not increasing the total turnout of voters, but rather increasing the turnout of voters who are participating meaningfully in elections. Voters who want to support stand-alone third party candidates can still do so, but voters who want to “send a message” to the major party candidate by voting on the minor party line will now have a chance to do so.
2. It reduces down-ballot drop-off. This is due to the “signaling” effect of a minor party. Voters who don’t know much about down-ballot races use the minor party endorsement as a way to get information. The vote totals in which minor parties cross-endorse major party candidates are routinely higher than those in which there are no fusion candidacies. So it’s not higher turnout in terms of who shows up to vote, but it is higher turnout in that the “drop-off” in down-ballot races is lower.
3. Finally, fusion increases turnout because the third parties that want to use it will inevitably work to register and mobilize new voters. This number will vary on the intensity of the work that the minor party undertakes, but political science is quite clear that political party mobilization is one of the most important ways to generate increased turnout, especially in lower level races. Minor parties can do this with or without fusion, but since fusion will allow minor parties to have something to say to voters besides “Waste your vote on our candidates” it is clear that the fusion-based minor parties poll much higher numbers than the “purist” third parties.
It’s important not to overclaim. But one can say that fusion modestly increases turn-out not so much by bringing new voters to the polls, but rather by (1) giving people information so that they vote in lower races, thus increasing turn-out in all races on the ballot, and (2) making it possible for third-party voters to increase the number of votes case for major party candidates.
What's In a Name: The Power of Fusion Politics in a Local Election, by Scott Susin, a study by an econometrician about the impact of fusion on voter turnout in New York.
(April 2004)
